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Which Industries Will Sink and Which Will Swim in the Post-Covid World?
The employment numbers for May are still ugly, but by this point they shouldn’t shock anyone. Economists have been telegraphing for the past two months that the economic worst of the national response to the covid-19 pandemic is yet to come. If Goldman Sachs is to be believed, the economic worst has arrived — with GDP shrinking to unprecedented lows and unemployment stretching to unprecedented highs.
But there is a silver lining to bottoming out. Now begins the upswing.
To be sure, the labor market has borne the biggest brunt of the economic downturn. In just eleven weeks the unemployment rate has rocketed from one of the lowest it’s ever been to one of the highest it’s ever been.
We can all take heart in the indicators suggesting that the second half of the year will be better, and that investors expect unemployment to improve relatively quickly. But, let’s not kid ourselves — business in the post-Covid world is likely to be dramatically different, and some of the hardest hit industries — amusement parks, movie theaters, hotels, clothing stores, and airlines — may not recover for some time, if ever.
Other industries will rebound, however, as will companies that are bold and agile enough to adapt to a new business-as-usual. The employment market…
